Two new reports on peak oil, this time from New Zealand

New Parliament oil report shows folly of Govt transport plans

The report states that another supply crunch is likely to occur soon after 2012, and high
oil prices will be sustained in the future because low-cost reserves are
near exhaustion. It warns that the world economy could suffer recurrent
recessions as the price fluctuates.

Parliament has just released a report that concludes, among other things:

Low-cost reserves of oil are being rapidly exhausted, forcing oil companies to turn to more expensive sources of oil. This replacement of low-cost sources of oil with higher-costs sources is driving the price of oil higher.

World oil production capacity will not grow or fall in the next five years while demand will continue to rise.

Organisations including the International Energy Agency and the US military have warned that another supply crunch is likely to occur soon after 2012 due to rising demand and insufficient production capacity

There is a risk that the world economy may be at the start of a cycle of supply crunches leading to price spikes and recessions, followed by recoveries leading to supply crunches.
Key export-generating industries in the New Zealand economy including tourism and timber, dairy, and meat exports are very vulnerable to oil shocks because of their reliance on affordable international transport.

Dennis Tegg of Thames, whose blogspot has great stuff on it, says: "I don't know anything about the background of how this report came about - who asked for the research to be done and why. I strongly doubt that anyone in the National party asked for it as they're currently investing $11bn in roads. But one way or another, it has come to pass that Clint Smith, Research Analyst, Economics and Industry Team, Parliamentary Library put this together and published it on the parliamentary web site."


New Zealand's economy is extremely vulnerable to high oil prices because our
transport sector is so reliant on imported oil. Oil and vehicles make
up 30 percent of our total imports.

Green Party leader has put out a press statement which includes:"The idea that New Zealanders will be able to switch to electric vehicles in a short period of time is unworkable - it would cost us a fortune," said Dr Norman.

"The smart solution to both congestion and high oil prices is to invest in rail, buses, walking and cycling.

"We continue to ask Transport Minister Steven Joyce why he won't shift
funding to smart rail projects like the CBD Rail Loop, which should be
the priority and is what Aucklanders clearly want.

"We need to future proof our transport system now. The Government has the means, there's no excuse not to act," said Dr Norman.

Link to Parliament Research Report "The Next Oil Shock":

http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/4/6/a/00PLEco10041-The-next-oil-shock.htm

Link to Russel Norman's question to Minister of Transport Steven Joyce yesterday:

http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/PB/Business/QOA/1/9/8/49HansQ_201010...

The other report is from two civil engineers Aline E Lang and Andre Dantas from Canterbury University, Christchurch. Here. It says that a constraint of 10% on fuel would reduce our economy by 50% by 2028.
Very long academic paper but very important.